Conspiracy Theory

Before I begin this post, I need to first disclaim that these are my views and my views only. There is no facts or evidence but just my own active imagination. But its really up to you if this is true. So here goes..

If I asked you if you knew what are the 2 events that has brought the world out of an economic depression, what would you say? Give up?


War and Disease. 

In the course of history this 2 events has time and time again brought the world out of a depression and somehow this 2 events always resurfaces. 

Now let us take a look at our modern history since 1997. In 1997, there was the Asian Financial Crisis and in 2000 the tech bubble burst. The global economy was going into a tail spin. In 2001, there was 911, where the Twin Towers collapse that eventually introduced Osama as the perpetrator. Afghanistan was invaded as it is believed Osama hid there. But of course that led to bombing in London, Madrid and Bali. In 2003, there was SARS. Thereafter the economy rallied. 

In 2007 there was the sub-prime crisis that eventually led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the world economy collapsed. In 2009, H1N1 was declared a pandemic. The then World Health Organisation head, Indonesia actually mentioned that this virus was man-made (Hhhmmm...). In 2010, North Korea supposedly sunk a South Korean warship, almost throwing the 2 Koreas into war. But in the midst of the chaos the economy seem to be picking up with other measures like quantitative easing by America and other policies done by other countries. Economy seem to be improving and the North and South Korea incident just seem to disappear after some shelling and testing of missiles.

Just recently, the economy seem to be on the mends until the European countries cannot seem to get their act together and suddenly there is this flare up over the Senkaku Islands/ Diaoyu Islands. North Korea declares they have a nuclear warhead that can reach the US and North Korea declaring they are actually cancelling their cease fire agreement with South Korea. And we now have another strain of virus killing people in China.

So Tang what are you driving at? Well, it just seems that these incidences seem to happen at times when the global economy is on a downward trend. Why?

Well, if you have not catch the movie Lord of War, please do. But if you do not want to, let me just summarise it. Lord of War was about a small time gun runner that was selling arms to gangsters in the beginning. As his business got bigger, he started selling arms to troubled areas and eventually made it to be a millionaire. 

His business started to get noticed by a US detective and he was finally arrested as he was a threat to national security. Now at the closing credits there was a voice over by Nicholas Cage and it was mentioned that actually the biggest gun runners are the arm producing countries. And one of the biggest spending in many economies are in arms and therefore wars will never end....and spending usually kick-start economies.

So wars will never end. Wars will be there to strike fear and panic in people to justify spending in arms be it for defensive or offensive.

So if spending is key to kick start economies then how does diseases increase spending? Noticed how basic necessities disappear off the shelves when people panic thinking that the disease may become a pandemic? Canned foods, water, mask, medical supplies are bought as people think they will be quarantined at home. We even have people at this moment who are actually starting to prep either for a war, a pandemic or the end of the world. See National Geographic program Doomsday Preppers.

But Tang its just coincidences, just so happens that during slowing economy these things happens.... well maybe. But 3 in a row? Up to you to decide. 

But there are just so many stories about secret organisations that somehow I tend to get swayed. Now what if there really is a group, be it the freemasons, the templars (Top Ten Secret Societies) whoever that controls the world and all country heads were members sworn into secrecy, they orchestrate how the world is being played out and we are just pieces on a giant chessboard. Whatever it is the organisation always have to ensure there is progress. That economies have to be corrected if it is over heating, kick started if it is sputtering. But in long term ensure that there is progress in the world. 

For all we know Osama could be walking among us now, after shaving his beard and taking off his turban. He has just been an actor in a bigger order of things. We never actually seen his body anyway.

I have always believe that with these theories the way to invest is long term and diversified. Have insurance to cover the unexpected. Who knows where the next war will be... or the next disease may strike

Once again, this is my own opinion and my own opinion only. But whatever you want to believe is up to you.

Miscommunication.. Between genders

Since we are at the topic of miscommunication. The way men and women communicate is different too. Especially when there is a problem.

Men don't talk about their problems  We try and solve it. So men tend to keep quiet and think about their problems and how to solve it. And the last thing men needs is the women to them and ask, 'whats wrong?'... Men will tend to say 'nothing' to a question like that, because we do not discuss problems. Women will aggravate the situation by asking 'you got problem right? Why you not telling me? The problem is me right??...' sigh, now it is.....

You see, women tend to discuss problems. They do it when they meet each other, they do it when they meet men friends, they do it when they go to toilet together...ok ok I don't know about the last one, but I know they love to go toilet together.

Because of that women cannot phantome that men can keep their problems to themselves. Because women cannot. They talk about problems and most of the time do not expect a solution. But another problem with men is they tend to want to offer solutions.

Imagine the very familiar conversation between a husband and wife or girlfriend and boyfriend.

Boy friend pick up girl friend from work.. girl friend gets into car.. girl friend starts complaining about her colleague: you know ah that bitch in the office talk so loud over the phone like her grandfather office. She is oblivious... (continues with complaining about colleague). After sometime, boyfriend will tell her: relax la.. just don't bother about her lor, you get so worked up now worth it meh? Just chill.

Silence will usually ensue..

In the head of men, they will feel shiok he have helped her solve her problems not knowing it is the beginning of a black hole opening up.

In the head of women, they will be thinking, you know what I am going through meh? You also not me. Men never understand, I don't want to talk to him again!

Girl friend calls friend to complain how boy friend don't understand her. Also complains about colleague.. she feels better..

Next day girl friend forgets about not wanting to talk to boyfriend. Boy friend pick girl friend, girl friend start complaining again. Boyfriend try and solve problem: told you yesterday no need to bother about this kinda people right?

Silence... bigger black hole..

Eventually when boy friend picks up girl friend from work, girlfriend get into car.. silence.. and the silence becomes deafening.. beginning of the end...

Men (you, yes you), women need a listening ear, so just listen. Fight with all your might the urge to offer your solution. Give only when asked.. don't try and solve her problem. I use to think that was enough.. but actually they want acknowledgements too.

Example:

If wife / girlfriend complaining about colleague, answer with: ya lor, why got people like that one (shake head).. be aware that your body language and tones is congruent with what you are saying... women picks up non verbal communication surprisingly well. And now you know why you cannot lie to your mother.. she seems to know all the time.

Women (yes you in the dress), just leave the men be.. they will tell you their problems eventually. And its not you. And don't be surprise if men tells you they are thinking of nothing... they are capable of that.. if you ask them what they talked over coffee with their guy friends the past few hours, don't be surprise they will say nothing.. and if there are juicy gossips don't be surprise they don't know the details, they don't.. honestly, I know...

Miscommunication.. Has It Happened Yet

Our reliance on technology has redefined the way we do many things. Many have proved that you actually do not have to step out of the house and still be able to survive just relying on the internet alone. 

Lets look at the possibility of surviving not having to step out of the house at all. Lets look at basic needs of a human being according the the Maslow Hierarchy of Needs:

Photo from Wikipedia

Many of the aspect can actually be fulfilled by the internet. As long as you are home, your physiological needs of breathing, food, water, sleep excretion is taken care of. In Singapore, water can be drunk straight from the tap. Food can be ordered online. Groceries also bought online and delivered to your doorstep.

Money to buy the groceries? Do really stupid things like doing back flips and fall on your face or Harlem Shake, video it down. Post it on youtube, monetize the video and hope and pray it becomes viral....

Esteem seems to be bigger when you are on the internet, suddenly people can become more confident with more self esteem knowing they are under the shadow of the internet. They become racist, antagonistic and feel invincible posting comments on the internet. One will say things on the internet that he/ she will normally never say face to face to another person.

But one thing that the internet and technology has taken away is the art of communication. The feelings and emotions attached to a particular message is gone. And sometimes this creates unnecessary conflicts or misunderstanding.

Review this message. Text a friend to meet for lunch tomorrow. He said later ok? I thought later like later today, he meant later like tomorrow later. Well yes, he just replied the way he usually would if he was standing in front of me and I will have understood him clearly! Waited for him to finish his 'meeting' then text him about him still stuck in the meeting. It was then he called and said he meant tomorrow later....

So what went wrong? In the Neuro Linguistic Communications Model, communication is divided into 3 components:

1. Words

2. Tones

3. Body Language

Each component takes up a certain percentage to make it 100%. Now make a guess how much percentage does words take up? Some of you may say 50% or more because we talk everyday and we understand English as a language made up of words.... 7%.

Sure or not Tang 7%? Let me tell you all the percentages for the components first: Tones 38% and body language 55%. SURE OR NOT?

Ask yourself this ever felt that this particular person, although really friendly and chatty and all but there is something not right about him/ her? Ever see somebody and feel I cannot click with this person almost 2 seconds into meeting them, but not able to pin point why?

Its probably because 55% of their communication is not in line with yours already or whatever that is said by that somebody is not congruent with his body language. Think about the person you brand 'fake' after being acquainted with them, why? You probably cannot pin point why, but its probably because of in-congruence with what they are saying (words) and how they are saying it (tones & body language).

So if the next time you want to post something on Facebook, Twitter or any social media website. Think again, you never know you may find the authorities knocking on your door.

What you don't want to know, but need to know..

Well I realised I have been posting alot about investments and as a financial adviser I should be well rounded and post other financial portfolios too. This post I devote to insurance.

Now I grew up never being a believer of insurance because, my father told me they cheat people's money. My friends told me insurance agent very pushy. Other people tell me insurance don't pay till you are dead.

Well in some ways those saying ain't wrong. The truth is there is nothing wrong with the product but something wrong with the salespeople. After being in the industry for 13 years, I know exactly what some salespeople will do to make the sale. I know in times of desperation people can do stupid things.

I have met many clients who have told me their regular premium investment linked policies don't make money.... sigh.. its not suppose to. The mortality charges paying for your death and disability coverage is being drawn from your units, so as you grow older more is drawn to cover those charges.

Many a times the failure is not in the product but the failure to manage expectations. Just like what makes a good horror movie. Well my expectations of a good horror movie is one that leaves you thinking about it after the show ends. One without a soppy happy ending. Just think about horror classics, they never ended resolving the issue.. closing scene is still flickering lights and evil laughter. But nowadays horror movies has happy endings with issues resolved and they live happily ever after... yawn.

Ok ok that may not be the best analogy of managing expectations.. so lets look at some other expectations. Now imagine this scenarios:

1.  You are in a plane, the pilot comes over the radio telling all passengers to put on your life jacket and prepare for crash landing

2.  You bought a new car but damn suay, on the way home you got tire puncture

3.  It started to rain, you go into the shop to buy an umbrella. You walked out of the shop, opened the umbrella, its full of holes

What is the expectations for each scenario?

1.  Life jacket is under the seat

2.  Spare tire is in the trunk

3.  Go back to the shop ask for refund

But what if there was no life jacket under the seat, no spare tire in the trunk and no refund at the shop. You will feel cheated! Because its expected. But if you took the flight and the airline company have told you before you bought the ticket that their policy was that passengers have to pay if they wanted the life jacket. You have the choice to take the flight without the life jacket, take the flight with life jacket but top up some money or not take the flight even though it could be the cheapest.

Lets say you took the flight cheap without the life jacket and if scenario 1 happened, your expectations have been managed. You will not be upset (probably upset for not paying more for a jacket) because you chose. The airline company disclosed and you fully understood the risk. They probably made you signed some indemnity to indemnify them from the risk of you not wanting the life jacket.

That will be too much risk and paper work for them... but if only the financial industry have something like this. Imagine I go speak to a family man, I know his family. I try to talk to him about coverage but he tells me: insurance bluff people, cheat money, I cannot see until I die. Then I whip out an indemnity form ask him sign. The form will state the exact time, place, setting and whatever the guy said on it. He will sign on it. If something untoward happens and people start coming to ask why no insurance, why Tang you never ask him get himself covered since he got family, I can whip out this indemnity form and say I did, but he want to invest property, buy car, entertain frequently, invest stock market, find business opportunity, go shopping, everything else but buy insurance......

Everyday I live in fear of knowing that life is unpredictable. Not fear for myself but the fear of the people around me who some chooses to just ignore the need for financial planning. The fear that I may not have the opportunity to speak to the closest people before something happens. Then again, I ain't Snata Clause. I do not have a sleigh pulled by Rudolph and friends that can traverse the whole world on the 24th of December. 

Some clients I have spoken too very quickly will tell me, Tang I have insurance already. Ok.. but when it starts raining, umbrella has holes. You cannot believe that there are individuals with $10,000 coverage: I have already...

Ever considered liabilities and who is going to pay for them if something happens? Some people's credit card debts already more than $10,000. Well that is why sometimes families have to lose their dignity to ask for money from relatives, friends and even social support just to get through life after something bad happens to a key family member...

I have this very funny client when I showed him a term plan he commented: Wa this one like 4D. Term plans are plan that has very high coverage no cash value, just like car insurance. But if objective of client is coverage for death then I will recommend term. To put into perspective, it can be like $200 per month for coverage of a $1,000,000.

Told my client yes its like 4D except that for 4D you hope you tio, then get pay out, if not tio jia (get eaten). But for term plan, don't tio good thing, but if you tio got pay out. Win win situation,4D win lose situation.

For investment savvy clients, I will ask them if they know what an option is? Options are investments, you buy for a strike price and pay a minimum option fee for it. At the strike price you have the option to exercise it. Just like insurance, you pay option fee (premiums) for a future promise of exercising it at certain events.

Insurance are like options. Its a small fee for a big payout later. If you took the above example of a term plan paying $200 per month for $1,000,000 you need to pay 400 years of premiums before you cover that amount.

So if you now think you actually have an umbrella(insurance) already. When was the last time you opened it to check for holes? You don't want to check it for holes when it is raining. Do it now while its sunny. They say make hay while the sun shines. Think about it.