Elastic VS Inelastic

For many years now, whenever I shop for a pair of bermudas for casual wear, one of my concerns are always whether the waistband is elastic or inelastic. I always look out for bermudas that are elastic as I know if my waist line increases then there is more room for expansion. With elastic waistband I can eat more during buffets. If I put on wait I do not have to immediately run out and start buying new pants. If only somebody can design work pants that are also elastic yet look professional will be ideal. I can still remember the times when I bought Levi's jeans with waistline 32... today I struggle with a 38.. so elasticity is key in my choice.

In economics, whether the demand for an item is elastic or inelastic will determine how much price will affect the demand of it. Meaning if the demand for an item is inelastic, no matter how high the price the demand will still be there. Just like my bermudas if waistband not elastic then when waitline increase then will have to buy knew ones, no choice...

But of demand for a good or item or service is elastic then with increase in prices then demand will drop. Just like the case of my elastic waistband bermudas, if the waistline increase it does not matter I just have shorter strings to tie but still can wear for some time.

We have been taught that some of the things that has inelastic demand are cigarettes, alcohol, healthcare and probably funeral services. There probably are more but these are blatant examples. As you can see cigarettes have increased in price from a mere $3.50 in my first memory to about $11.00 today yet there is no lack of smokers. Same as alcohol and I do not have to say much about healthcare and funeral services.

But in Singapore, I have noticed that there are 2 other items that has also inelastic demand, cars and property. Its amazing how much people will pay for a piece of paper that is only valid for 10 years and you cannot even wipe your backside with after the 10 years. That piece of paper coast about $80,000 today. But when you ask the same people to set side $8,000 per year for the next 10 years for a potential return of 5% they think I am crazy.... 

$80,000 buying a COE, value after 10 years = $0

$8,000 set aside per year @ 5%, value after 10 years = $100,623

But of course I do agree that having a car is a necessity especially if you have kids and all.

I read about how LTA came up with the COE scheme and all because they use behavioural economics. Read all about the report here. They used chocolates as example to justify the need to charge for zoning of restricted zones and all. Chocolates and congestion what is the relationship!!?? The rationale is that if you have free chocolates, people will take the free chocolates but if you have to pay for the chocolates then less people will take.

The research have been done on a very shallow basis without taking into consideration of many other factors. For example the culture and tradition of Singaporeans. Singaporeans are still very much conscious about face and status. And 2 of the items that can fully express your status is a car and a big property or the number of properties you own.

I remembered that when I was younger my grandmother use to tell me in hokkien: more important to have big car then big house cos more people can see the car but not the house. 

So because of face many will still buy a car as a status symbol. And not any ordinary car but a big one. In Marketing there is something called the perfect price discrimination strategy, people like Toyota has come out with their luxury brand Lexus, so that they can capture all the market. On a budget buy Toyota, want to express status buy a Lexus. That is exactly how our COE is heading and yes that should be it.

But what I cannot fully comprehend is the need to have Motorcycle category. Ok so its a perfect price discrimination strategy so we also charge motorcycles but in the latest COE bidding it has been raised to $2700 up by 30%! Why? Are motorcycles now causing the congestion? But Tang relative to a car still cheap what? Yes but its the principal, the principal of COE is reduce congestion but motorcyclist taking less space on the road causing almost no congestion (unless in an accident) is slapped with higher COE? 

Ok I am somebody driven by principal and that is also why there is an internal struggle now for me to purchase a Sony PS4. I had chose to purchase a Sony PS3 in the past because they never charged for online gaming but the Xbox 360 did. But with the launch of the PS4 online gamers has to purchase a subscription.... contemplating switching back to PC....

Anyway, LTA should think out of the box to solve their congestions rather than just taking money.... unless they have already understood the inelasticity of Singaporeans car demands.

Matter of Life and Death

Many people have said that buying an insurance is not because someone is dead but more importantly there are people who are living. Over the past 2 weeks, I have seen and known of 2 deaths that has happened. RIP.

Its common for people to say RIP or rest in peace when deaths occur. The dead will rest in peace but will the living be in hell?

It is almost impossible for any families today to be earning only one income and having one income taken away unexpectedly is a nightmare for the living.

As an adviser, I have always advocated that financial planning be done as a family. And the usual exercise is done like this:

1. Ascertain total household expenses
2. Ascertain each income earners share of expenses
3. Ascertain how long will the surviving partner adapt to not having the other's income
4. Ascertain total amount of coverage needed for each income earner
5. Collate existing policies
6. Ascertain shortfall of coverage after taking into consideration of existing policies
7. Recommend solutions

With the steps taken above the surviving partner knows exactly what to do when an emergency happens. The surviving partner can be at peace financially knowing that the planning has been done.

Lets put into perspective:

Lets assume John and Mary is married. Their total household expenses is $2000. Yes I hear you.. its more than that but I use $2000 as an assumption.. can? I usually will breakdown these expenses into things like utilities, kids education, transportation, groceries, etc

Anyway, both of them contribute 50/50 to this $2000. Therefore the share of John is $1000 and Mary is $1000 towards the household expenses. After much discussion they feel that they will like to cover about 10 years of not having the other person around (this figure is an assumption and differs from every family).

With that using the simplest of calculation, we take $1000 x 12 x 10. Which means each of them should have a coverage of $120,000 covering each other so that in the case of premature death occuring the surviving partner will be at peace that there will be 10 yrs of $1000 per month (this calculation does not take inflation into consideration).

After going through their policies, Mary has an existing coverage of $50,000 and John has none (typical). Therefore, Mary should get $70,000 more coverage and John $120,000.

The solution that will be provided is dependent on what preference has each of them have. The few categories that can be considered are:

1. Term: high sum assured, low premiums, no cash value
2. Traditional whole life: higher premiums (pay premiums whole of life), lower sum assured, accumulated cash value
3. Limited pay whole life: highest premiums (pay premiums for limited time), lower sum assured, accumulated cash value
4. Investment Linked Whole Life: cheaper premiums than whole life plans, high sum assured, cash value determined by investments in funds.

Depending on what kind of plans John and Mary prefer, the solution will be presented. Affordability is also a factor that is contemplated here.

So these are the steps that will make the term RIP more meaningful. So sit your partner down, start taking out your policies (if you have a sensitive nose, be careful it usually dusty), collate your expenses, start talking to your partner about how long they will need to adapt not having you around. Do the simple calculations and see if you have any shortfall.

If its too much trouble, call me.. I do this as my job. And I assure you I do not charge.. yet. I can also email you a simple spreadsheet to help you do the above calculations just be you keying in all your figures. So email me, tngjinyau@gmail.com, it's free..

2014 Whats Your New Year's Resolution

Some days into 2014. Have you made your resolutions? Or these things ain't popular anymore? Anyway, I made mine. This year is about reaching out to as many people as possible and ensuring they have a basic knowledge of financial planning. And what better way then to reach out from here! So the first topic to share on is retirement planning since it was the last few things I shared on in 2013.

In my last post about the impossibilities to retire in Singapore. I mentioned about setting aside monies early for retirement. But how much? Where? Why? How?

To first answer the whys the where and how much will fall into place..

Then why? Well inflation is what u should be concerned about. My usual story of kopi o costing 50 cents 10 years ago and it costing about 90 cents today, inflation 4.13% per year for the past 10 yrs. So which means if inflation carries on at 4.13% the next 10 years. Your kopi o will cost $1.35 in 10 years time. Put that same 90 cents into a savings instrument of 0.05% returns, 10 years later it becomes $0.9045... cannot buy kopi o in 10 years time.

So if we put it into perspective. If your expenditure per month now is $1000 (not inclusive of holidays, car instalment, petrol, ERP, road tax, utilities, future kids school fees, phone bills, cable modem, cable tv, credit card bills...) and you intend to retire in 30 years time. Inflation is at 4%. You will need $3,244 per month at retirement. And based on our current life expectancy, you probably have another 20 yrs of retirement. Calculating very simply you will need $38,928 (not including more frequent visits to the hospital, medical bills, holidays, golf membership fees, high teas, property tax more than 1) per year for retirement. And to ensure this amount last for the next 20 years. You should have $778,560* at the point of your retirement.

Disclaimer
* this figure is based on you having expenditure of 1000 dollars now and no change in spending habits till retirement (scrooge!) with inflation rate at 4%. This does not constitue as a recommendation but a recommendation to call me.

The above calculation will answer how to plan for retirement.

How much to set aside will be dependent on where you put your monies. Leave it in a savings instrument that gives you 0.05% you will need to set aside $2146 per month to achieve $778,560 in 30 years time.

Put into endowment giving you 3% you will have to set aside $1324 per month.

Put into a medium risk investment giving about 5% you set aside $930 per month.

So where and how much will be dependent on your propensity to take risk. Not a risk taker set aside more in lower returns instruments. Risk taker take higher risk. But not all investment vehicles are sound. So enter with your eyes wide open.

So some of you may already have portfolios that may include many assets. Are those assets helping you to achieve your financial objectives? How risky are your assets or your strategy? Have you compiled your portfolio and determined their rate os return?

If you are an individual reading this please share with your friends. If you and a group of friends will want to learn more about detailed calculations for yourself, organise a group and email me. If you are an employee thinking a topic like this will be great for a self improvement talk in your office email me too. Tngjinyau@gmail.com

This is my first step achieving my resolution for the year. More importantly having a first step is an action. Have you actioned on your resolution? Is this years resolution the same as 2013.. if it is then action is what is lacking. Have a great 2014 ahead and stay tuned!

2013 is coming to an end

Its the end of the year again. A time for reflection and a time to give thanks. I will like to thank all my clients and friends that have supported me and believed in my service. Not only have you made my life and work more meaningful, you have also made you and your families lives more meaningful. This is the start of a mutually beneficial relationship which I want to maintain. Please feel free to call anytime. Will catch up again soon.

I will also like to apologise to those that I may have not been able to help getting insurance. I have tried my best. But there are other services I can help you with.

Reflecting upon my life till 2013, it has been an amazing journey. I can still remember the day I bought my first policy long long time ago...

The phone sounded and I picked up to see who called. It was a good friend and ex colleague whom we did many crazy things together. He called suggesting a coffee seaaion. Sure!

At the coffee session, he told me he has joined an insurance company. I felt betrayed thinking I have been lead into a coffee session to be sold an insurance policy. But as a friend I will also want to see him do well. I told him, Bro just prepare a savings policy of $250 a month. He said ok.

We met again to do the paperwork and before we signed he said he will have to present the product. No need, I said. I am doing this to support you, sign where?

But Tang I have to explain the policy first... sshh sign where?

Did the paperwork and we had coffee and talked about life. And till today, I feel thankful towards him. I never beleived in insurance because my dad told me bluff people one.. cheat money one. I had my pre concieved idea that its bull.

It all changed when in 2000 I did my Certificate in Life Insurance, the only paper you need then to be a financial representative of an insurance company. I started to realise and see the need for financial planning. But in 2009 I did not just see the need, I experienced it.

I woke up one morning with a tingling sensation in my shoulder: first thought.. stroke! Immediately booked my $300 plus medical checkup and waited 2 weeks for my results. Doc said that in an emergency we will call you within 2 weeks and please come down immediately, if not just come back in 2 weeks time.

The results were consoling yet damaging at the same time. I have no cholestrol (surprise!) but have minute traces of blood in my urine, fatty liver, slightly high reading of sugar in my blood and is obese (not surprising) Doctor advised exercise.

Whew! Not stroke, realised it was probably my new sleeping posture which prevents my snoring. I find out if I slept on my side I don't snore, so the tingling sensation was from me sleeping on my shoulder the whole night.

Better increase my coverage, I thought. I was a trainer then in an insurance company and I applied to upgradr my shield plan which was still at a public hospital A ward. Rejected!!! I have been denied coverage in a private hospital by their company I work with!!! I tried other companies and it was either a reject or premiums loaded. I resigned to my fate and got my coverage with loading and all.

If only I had gotten my coverage earlier. If only I had not felt so invincible then. I could have covered myself more. Sigh! If only I knew the numbers to this weeks 4D and ToTo.

Well, if you are at the moment healthy and fit, please do not be complacent about it. Nature has made us to last only for a limited time before we deteriorate. Even a car engine don't run forever. Just like when the car breaks down we want to push it into the best mechnic to get it repaired. And that cost money. Imagine when we start breaking down...

These cost can be eatimated and planned for and there is no better time then now. My sincere hope that your resolution for 2014 will include: start a financial plan or speak to a financial adviser.

Happy New Year! In advance.

Haunted... no more...

The time is 8pm. You are in the office working over time. You look up from your computer wanting to take a break and rest your eyes.

You suddenly realise you are all alone in the office. The silence is deafening! The ticking of the clock that is hanging on the wall is suddenly very loud. The photocopier machine suddenly starts up, then you realise its just fax coming in.

You look out the window but see your own reflection in it. You look away quickly, as you are worried you will see something else in the reflection other than yourself. You start recalling the horror stories you have heard from your friends about being in offices alone at night.

You think you hear the keyboard of somebody else clicking a few cubicles away. You tell yourself its all in your head. Suddenly your mobile phone rings, you practically jumped, the ringing of your mobile phone seems louder than usual.

You hesitate to pick up the phone, what if all your hear is static and unearthly clicking sounds like in The Ring?! The caller ID does not show a number, and the caller seems persistent. You slowly reach over to your phone and pick it up.

You pressed the answer button and said: Hello, hoping it ain't the static and clicking sound you hear.. while you were praying the caller said: Hello, may I speak to your name? Yes, you said, heaving a sigh of relieve it is a human voice. Hi, I am John calling from Insurance Company Name. 

Oh no a cold call from an insurance company! This is worst than static and clicking noises! Give me the static!!!

Is this how you feel when you get a call from an financial consultant? Have no fear! DNC is here! If you haven't read the news or have been living in a cave, DNC is 'Do Not Call' and as of yesterday you can start registering yourself on this list so that you can lodge a complain officially if you still get unsolicited calls.

To register yourself, please click here. Wait! You sure? You may be missing out on the best things in life... like financial planning and insurance or investment or property deals or... never mind you don't care about those anyway.. click away!

Just remember that if your financial consultant calls you don't go complaining that he flouted the DNC laws, you are a customer. If you don't have a financial consultant, please call me 9180 3448, Tang, I cannot call you.

Debts

Was in Australia over the past 5 days and I am amazed at the advertisements on TV. There were numerous advertisements on TV about insurance and I wonder how many Australians actually pick up the phone and respond to the ad on TV. For the companies to be placing ads on TV, I am sure the call backs must be quite a number. We already know that in many mature economies like US, UK and even Australia many already have embraced the fact that they need to do a financial plan, and they NEED insurance. Well, in Singapore we still haven't got there yet where people actively search for a financial planner and tell them 'I need a financial plan.' Many still fear talking to an adviser probably because of the bad perceptions of them. 

But one ad on TV actually caught my attention. It is the ads on TV that tells people that 'You are not alone if you are in debt, call this number and our friendly consultants can help you with it.' Wow! There was easily 2 companies that is offering that service. Once again, my believe is that if the TV ads was not effective there will be nobody advertising on TV. I wonder if we place ads like that in Singapore how many will respond.

I think it is a very Asian mentality that we do not talk to strangers about our monies or debt issues. Like that Chinese saying about not hanging your dirty laundry in the open. So we will never admit we have a problem in front of a stranger, neither will we admit we need help with our finances. And being Singaporeans we are worse because we expect the government to handle everything for us. We think the government should stop the inflation so things are cheaper. We expect CPF to help us with our housing, retirement, and kid's education. 

And worse of all is that many think that in death all debts are erased. Many do not know that these debts are actually passed on to their dependants when premature death occurs. Many I have spoken to is surprise to find out that debts are not cancelled at death. Some individuals I have spoken to came from rich family backgrounds with one of the parents in highly successful businesses. Highly successful businesses are usually highly geared with business loans generating good profits for the business. But all these works well with the business owner still alive. When the business owner dies prematurely, these business loans are passed on to the business and if the business is a sole proprietor or partnership these loans are automatically transferred to the estate and recovered from families. Some of the people I have spoken to have been victims to such instances. They have to pay off their parents debt because they never believe that death will happen early.

So if you know you or someone close to you are in debt, there are solutions to consider. Do not be afraid to raise it up to your financial consultant. That is one thing we do too. We can help you ascertain critical expenses and ensure that monies are channelled to reduce your debt. We have solutions to help cancel debts during certain events to ensure that your dependants are not burdened or even you are not burdened by your loved ones debt. Call me 9180 3448 or email me tngjinyau@gmail.com if you do not have anybody else to speak to. This is not some ah long service, if you need me to lend you money to pay off your debts, click the X button on the top right hand corner now... 

Crowdfunding... the new way forward?

Just read of 2 ladies helping to raise money for their mother's bills in the newspaper the other day. Their mother contracted ovarian cancer and the  bills and the care for her came up to about $9,000. They raised  $25,000 through crowd funding. Crowd funding is about getting strangers with big hearts to donate to a cause. Read more about crowd funding here. 

Wow! So can I assume the need to do a financial plan is now obsolete? No need to plan for critical illness because I can raise funds through crowd funding? No need to plan for retirement cos funds can be sourced through crowd funding? No need to plan to replace income if premature death occurs for your dependants? If you intend not to do any financial plan, then do your family and yourself a favour and teach them and yourself what crowd funding is. How crowd funding works and where to find the sources to get crowd funding to fund the emergencies. But if asking people for money in an emergency is too much for your pride and dignity then maybe it is time to sit down to do a financial plan. Let insurance be your crowd funding.

The fact is: insurance IS crowd funding. Anyone that pays a premium is technically pooling their monies into a fund so that they can withdraw it when an emergency happens. These emergencies are hospitalisation and surgery, premature death, critical illness or disability. And the amount of money that you fund is technically, one CENT for every dollar per year. Means that you give the insurance company $0.01 per year and when an emergency happens they give you $1 plus bonus. And to fully pay up the $1 the company will give you in an emergency you need 100 years. 

Some of you may think I have already leh... yes of course you have. But is it effective? Is it sufficient? I have met people who have claim to have already leh but only got 1 policy with $10,000 coverage. 

So let us take for example, you think you have no need for insurance because you are single and no dependants. Have you ever wondered how much money your parents have spent to bring you up? Lets not make it too complicated. Lets just take a meal of $4 a day. Your parents fed you 3 times a day, $12. In a year, $4,380 for the past 30 years $131,400. I have not even taken into consideration education, pampers, utilities and the other miscellaneous items. So if you left prematurely, all that money they spent is wasted and if you have only a $10,000 coverage what does it stand for. What can $10,000 do in this time and age? Think about it. 

You know who to call or email if you want to speak to someone.

And I have to share this video below.. I just love commercials that are tongue in cheek...enjoy!